- Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in November 2026?56¢56 %
- Will Claude go down 5-7 times in November 2026?22¢22 %
- Will Claude go down 8-10 times in November 2026?23¢23 %
- Will Claude go down 11-13 times in November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Claude go down 14+ times in November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- 4 %56,5 %<5Vol. 4,3 K $
- 13 %22 %5-7Vol. 2,1 K $
- 16 %23 %8-10Vol. 532,7 $
- 0,8 %11-13Vol. 358,7 $
- 0,6 %14+Vol. 396,9 $
Claude's service reliability underpins the market's strong lean toward minimal downtime. Official status data through November 10 shows all components operational, with 90-day uptime averaging 99.7–99.86% across claude.ai, the API, and related platforms. The only November incident so far—a 26-minute degraded performance event on November 8 for the Fable 5.1 model—fits the pattern of brief, resolved issues rather than extended outages. Recent months reinforce this track record: October saw roughly a dozen short incidents (mostly 30–240 minutes of elevated errors or degraded performance on connectors and models), while September incidents were similarly contained. No full-day outages have been reported in November, and Anthropic continues to demonstrate rapid mitigation through infrastructure on AWS and other platforms. Traders price the <5 days bucket highest because cumulative downtime has historically remained low even during active development cycles. The 5–7 day range captures modest room for additional minor events, while probabilities above 8 days stay thin given the absence of systemic risks or major scaling disruptions. Upcoming model releases or connector updates could introduce short-lived volatility, but the current operational baseline favors limited total impact for the month.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the number of days in November 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).