- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?42¢42 %
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?11¢11 %
- 16 %42 %1580Vol. 83,1 K $
- 1 %10,9 %1600Vol. 42,9 K $
Recent leaderboard updates on Arena.ai show Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.2 and Opus 5.5 variants posting the highest Coding Arena Elo scores, often exceeding 1810–1838, ahead of Google’s Gemini 4 Carbon and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. These gains stem from stronger agentic coding performance and user preference in blind evaluations, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge. With resolution set for December 31, any new fine-tunes, capability jumps, or competitive releases in the next six weeks could lift additional models past key thresholds, though current top scores already imply elevated implied probability for moderate targets and sustained uncertainty only for the highest ones.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".