- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?63¢63 %
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?32¢32 %
- Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?8¢8 %
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Xiaomi have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will MiniMax have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
7 %62,5 %GoogleVol. 7,2 K $
1 %32 %AnthropicVol. 18,1 K $
7,5 %MetaVol. 895,9 $
1,9 %OpenAIVol. 692,8 $
1,5 %SpaceXAIVol. 992,5 $
0,8 %MoonshotVol. 431,4 $
1 %0,7 %MicrosoftVol. 824 $
0,6 %XiaomiVol. 459,4 $
0,6 %MiniMaxVol. 720,4 $
0,6 %BaiduVol. 435 $
0,6 %ByteDanceVol. 492,9 $
0,5 %MeituanVol. 438,6 $
Google holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 55% implied probability for the top AI model by end of December 2026, reflecting its recent advances in large language model scale, multimodal capabilities, and infrastructure advantages over rivals. The cluster of outcomes near 50% underscores a tightly contested race where Anthropic, Meta, and others trail but remain competitive through targeted improvements in reasoning, safety alignments, and specialized benchmarks. Key swing factors include imminent model releases, third-party evaluations of style-controlled generation quality, and any shifts in developer ecosystem adoption or regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment. With resolution approaching, fresh capability demonstrations or benchmark leadership changes could quickly realign market-implied odds.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".