- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?6¢6 %
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2027?16¢16 %
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027?28¢28 %
- 2 %5,7 %December 31, 2026Vol. 179,9 K $
- 2 %16 %June 30, 2027Vol. 1,8 K $
- 1 %28,5 %December 31, 2027Vol. 31 K $
US-brokered trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine began November 10 in Abu Dhabi, the first such meeting since February, with security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial issues at the center. Washington has proposed arrangements modeled on NATO Articles 4 and 5 that would keep Ukraine outside the alliance while providing collective defense commitments, a framework Russia has long demanded as a condition for any settlement. Ukrainian officials have signaled openness to alternative guarantees equivalent in strength to NATO membership, including potential EU accession paths discussed in prior October proposals, though Kyiv continues to reject formal neutrality declarations or limits on its military. Both sides have shown limited private flexibility on territory, yet Russia maintains its core demand that Ukraine forgo NATO membership. European allies are participating in parallel discussions on postwar architecture but are not in the main trilateral format. These negotiations represent the primary near-term catalyst for any formal Ukrainian commitment on alliance status.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.