- Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?24¢24 %
- Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?21¢21 %
- Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?19¢19 %
- Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?16¢16 %
- Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?10¢10 %
- Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?10¢10 %
- Will DeepSeek be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Mistral be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Bytedance be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Xiaomi be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?3¢3 %
- Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
7 %23,5 %MetaVol. 4,1 K $
5 %21 %AlibabaVol. 3,6 K $
10 %19 %GoogleVol. 8,9 K $
8 %16 %AnthropicVol. 5,4 K $
7 %10,4 %MoonshotVol. 1,2 K $
7 %9,6 %Z.aiVol. 1,5 K $
4,3 %DeepSeekVol. 1 K $
4,3 %OpenAIVol. 860,8 $
2,8 %MistralVol. 954,9 $
2,7 %BytedanceVol. 1,1 K $
2,6 %XiaomiVol. 791,3 $
2 %SpaceXAIVol. 596,3 $
Trader sentiment for the third-best Text Arena Math AI lab by end of December reflects a tight race driven by recent leaderboard volatility on platforms like LMArena and arena.ai, where blind user votes on mathematical reasoning prompts determine Elo-style rankings. Google’s Gemini 4 Argon currently leads, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus variants close behind, but Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 sit in striking distance around 1500–1506 scores. Key differentiators include proprietary scaling of chain-of-thought reasoning, specialized math pretraining datasets, and rapid iteration cycles, as smaller gaps in capability demonstrations can swing community preferences. With only weeks remaining, any new model releases, fine-tunes, or benchmark surges from these labs could shift the implied probabilities among the clustered frontrunners.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".