- Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31?31¢31 %
Recent surges in New World screwworm detections, now exceeding 120 confirmed U.S. animal cases across Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona with dozens active, reflect northward spread from Mexico amid insufficient sterile-fly releases and favorable warm, wet conditions supporting fly populations. USDA-APHIS surveillance, including trap monitoring and drone flights, shows rising wild-fly captures since October, while FDA emergency use authorizations for treatments like fluralaner in dogs address gaps in approved options. No formal national emergency declaration has occurred despite the 2025 HHS action enabling these tools, as officials continue phased border port reopenings and sterile-insect dispersal without invoking broader authorities. Upcoming USDA case updates, model runs on eradication thresholds, and the Texas sterile-fly facility's 2027 startup could shift containment trajectories and market-implied odds.
Reguli
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.