- Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?<1¢<1 %
- Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?2¢2 %
- 0,6 %November 30Vol. 21,8 K $
- 1 %1,6 %December 31Vol. 11,3 K $
Recent developments center on an unconfirmed October 2026 laboratory-associated pneumonia case in Irkutsk, Russia, where authorities reported no Yersinia pestis detection among the worker or nearly 200 contacts after enhanced monitoring. WHO assessments classified international risk as very low, with no evidence of sustained person-to-person transmission or clusters meeting International Health Regulations thresholds for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Endemic foci continue to produce sporadic cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, and the United States, yet surveillance data show no exponential growth or cross-border escalation. Trader consensus prices a qualifying declaration by late 2026 at minimal levels, reflecting routine antibiotic treatment, contact tracing, and the absence of new catalysts that would alter these containment dynamics before year-end resolution.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.