- Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?2¢2 %
- Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?82¢82 %
- Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?17¢17 %
- Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1 %
- 1 %2 %50+ bps increaseVol. 4,3 K $
- 81,5 %25 bps increaseVol. 12,6 K $
- 3 %17 %No ChangeVol. 15,5 K $
- 0,3 %25 bps decreaseVol. 2,3 K $
- 0,2 %50+ bps decreaseVol. 1,7 K $
Rising inflation pressures near the RBI’s 6% tolerance band, following the October 2026 repo rate hike to 5.50% and shift to calibrated tightening, underpin the 84.5% implied probability of another 25-basis-point increase at the December 2-4 meeting. October CPI data, expected around 6% and released November 12, will provide the final reading before the decision, with food prices and base effects driving the print higher while core inflation holds near 4.5%. Recent softening in crude oil to about $94 per barrel has tempered some tightening expectations versus earlier 50-basis-point scenarios. Strong GDP growth projections at 7.1% for FY27 support measured policy normalization, though the data-dependent stance leaves room for a pause if incoming figures moderate.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.