- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?7¢7 %
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on OpenAI announcing AGI achievement before 2027 because the company has released advanced large language models like GPT-6 Astra without issuing any formal claim that it meets its charter definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Recent model updates emphasize capabilities in coding, computer use, and security research, yet leadership statements distinguish demonstrated performance from a definitive AGI milestone. With limited time remaining, the absence of an official announcement sustains the 94.5% implied probability. A last-minute internal breakthrough or public statement could still shift sentiment if it satisfies the market's resolution criteria.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.