- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 9, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 10, 2026?14¢14 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 11, 2026?5¢5 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 12, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 13, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 14, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 15, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 16, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 17, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 18, 2026?11¢11 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 19, 2026?2¢2 %
- Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 20, 2026?4¢4 %
- 0,6 %November 9Vol. 339,1 $
- 14 %13,8 %November 10Vol. 405,5 $
- 21 %4,6 %November 11Vol. 606,8 $
- 1 %2,6 %November 12Vol. 363,4 $
- 0,6 %November 13Vol. 230,5 $
- 0,6 %November 14Vol. 444,4 $
- 0,6 %November 15Vol. 265 $
- 0,6 %November 16Vol. 305,6 $
- 34 %3 %November 17Vol. 443,2 $
- 7 %11,2 %November 18Vol. 306,9 $
- 2,1 %November 19Vol. 439,1 $
- 3,9 %November 20Vol. 328,5 $
Google's lack of official announcements, partner testing signals, or credible leaks for a Gemini Flash-Lite successor to the July 2026 3.5 Flash-Lite model keeps the "no release by November 30" outcome in the lead at 45.5%. Frequent Flash-tier updates earlier in 2026 (3.6 Flash in July, followed by 3.7 and 3.8 iterations) have not extended to a new Lite variant, as the company prioritizes higher-capability workhorses like 3.8 Flash and the Gemini 4 series while 3.5 Pro remains in testing. The clustering of probabilities around mid-to-late November dates reflects historical release cadence and minor speculation, yet traders assign lower weight to near-term launches absent supply-chain filings, developer previews, or executive commentary. Market-implied odds treat any surprise rollout as a low-probability catalyst given current development focus.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.