- Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?76¢76 %
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?19¢19 %
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- 14 %76,4 %≤1.9%Vol. 42,4 K $
- 19 %19,2 %2.0-2.4%Vol. 32,7 K $
- 0,2 %2.5-2.9%Vol. 12,1 K $
Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at or below 2% in several recent months, with the September 2026 reading at 2.1% after August’s 1.7%, supported by government fuel subsidies that have offset energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict. The Bank of Japan has stated that underlying inflation has generally reached its 2% target and upgraded its fiscal 2027 forecast while holding the policy rate at 1.25%, emphasizing the need to anchor readings sustainably around that level rather than allowing overshoots. Wage growth and service-price momentum provide some upward support, yet trader consensus heavily favors the ≤1.9% outcome for the 2026 annual figure, reflecting expectations that subsidies, base effects, and fading external shocks will keep the full-year result contained. Key upcoming releases and BOJ communications through year-end will test this pricing.
Reguli
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.