- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?2¢2 %
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?10¢10 %
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?19¢19 %
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?35¢35 %
- 1 %1,8 %December 31Vol. 281,9 K $
- 9,5 %March 31, 2027Vol. 10,5 K $
- 2 %19 %June 30, 2027Vol. 9 K $
- 1 %34,5 %December 31, 2027Vol. 113,4 K $
Israeli forces continue fortifying positions and expanding operations across southern Lebanon as of early November 2026, with no scheduled withdrawal despite the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework. That agreement ties phased Israeli redeployment to verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in designated pilot zones, yet recent talks have produced no breakthroughs on sequencing, border issues, or implementation verification. Hezbollah has rearmed in the interim while conditioning any disarmament discussion on a full Israeli pullback. The impending end of the UNIFIL mandate on December 31, 2026, and the start of its drawdown add uncertainty over monitoring and potential security gaps along the Blue Line. These factors sustain trader focus on whether verifiable progress toward Lebanese state control can occur before any broader Israeli exit.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.