- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?73¢73 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?55¢55 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?50¢50 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?32¢32 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?23¢23 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?19¢19 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?18¢18 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?17¢17 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?4¢4 %
- 13 %73 %Below 4.55%Vol. 17,1 K $
- 9 %54,5 %Below 4.50%Vol. 37,8 K $
- 8 %49,5 %Below 4.45%Vol. 55,7 K $
- 6 %32 %Below 4.40%Vol. 36,9 K $
- 1 %22,5 %Below 4.35%Vol. 52,6 K $
- 1 %18,8 %Below 4.30%Vol. 26,7 K $
- 5 %18,1 %Below 4.25%Vol. 32,3 K $
- 7 %16,9 %Below 4.20%Vol. 43,4 K $
- 5 %11,9 %Below 4.10%Vol. 25,1 K $
- 4,1 %Below 4.00%Vol. 13,1 K $
Recent U.S. midterm election results have eased 5-year Treasury yields toward 4.7 percent as of November 5, 2026, by raising expectations of fiscal restraint under divided government and reduced long-end bond supply. The effective federal funds rate sits near 3.88 percent amid a higher-for-longer policy stance, while elevated term premium from persistent deficits and supply pressures has kept intermediate yields above historical averages despite the recent pullback from October highs near 5.1 percent. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on these dynamics, with upcoming October employment data, CPI releases, and the December FOMC meeting as key near-term catalysts that could test whether yields probe lower before year-end or stabilize amid sticky inflation and robust nominal growth.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).