- Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?16¢16 %
- Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?10¢10 %
- Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?4¢4 %
- Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?72¢72 %
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?<1¢<1 %
- 4 %16 %Pause-Pause-HikeVol. 14,7 K $
- 4 %10 %Pause-Pause-PauseVol. 16,5 K $
- 2 %4,5 %Pause-Hike-HikeVol. 29,7 K $
- 3 %71,5 %Pause-Hike-PauseVol. 91,5 K $
- 0,8 %OtherVol. 5,5 K $
Trader consensus around a pause-hike-pause sequence for the October-January FOMC decisions stems primarily from the October 28 hold at the 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range, which followed September's 25-basis-point increase amid elevated inflation and upgraded growth assessments. The statement highlighted a "strong" economic pace, persistent price pressures, and the need for more data before further moves, with two dissents favoring an immediate hike. Steady labor market conditions, including unemployment near 4.1-4.2% and solid productivity gains, support expectations of one additional tightening by the December 8-9 meeting before a January pause, as markets weigh incoming inflation and employment releases against the Fed's dual mandate.
Reguli
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm