- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?2¢2 %
Traders assign a 97.6% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to persistent but contained gray-zone pressure, including recent PLA joint combat readiness patrols, ADIZ incursions averaging under 250 monthly sorties in late 2026, and China Coast Guard operations near Kinmen and Pratas without crossing into kinetic conflict. The most recent verifiable developments center on November 2026 detections of 4–11 daily aircraft sorties (some crossing the median line) alongside PLAN vessels and an unannounced exercise simulating isolation, framed by Beijing as routine training and by Taipei as harassment. These patterns reflect normalized coercion rather than invasion preparations, reinforced by Taiwan’s monitoring posture, U.S. alliance signaling, and China’s domestic priorities such as party discipline. Scenarios that could still shift odds include miscalculation during patrols, major policy reversals in Washington or Taipei, or sudden leadership changes altering risk tolerance.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.