- Will the Bank of Japan decrease the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?2¢2 %
- Will the Bank of Japan decrease the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?1¢1 %
- Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the March meeting?56¢56 %
- Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?40¢40 %
- Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?2¢2 %
- 2,1 %50+ bps decreaseVol. 709,5 $
- 1 %1,2 %25 bps decreaseVol. 658,9 $
- 6 %55,5 %No ChangeVol. 3,1 K $
- 3 %40 %25 bps increaseVol. 4,7 K $
- 1 %2,2 %50+ bps increaseVol. 647,3 $
With market-implied odds showing a near tie between no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 42.5% for the Bank of Japan’s March decision, traders are pricing in balanced risks around the pace of normalization. Persistent core inflation above target and solid wage growth support expectations for further tightening, while softer recent GDP prints and external demand signals introduce caution. The yen’s exchange rate trajectory and upcoming inflation releases will likely act as primary swing factors, as the central bank weighs domestic price pressures against global monetary policy divergence and growth moderation.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its March 2027 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled to conclude on March 18, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board resulting from its March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.