- Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?3¢3 %
- Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?97¢97 %
- Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?<1¢<1 %
- 0,2 %50+ bps decreaseVol. 836,1 $
- 5 %2,7 %25 bps decreaseVol. 2,1 K $
- 7 %97,4 %No ChangeVol. 8,9 K $
- 0,7 %25 bps increaseVol. 937,6 $
- 0,2 %50+ bps increaseVol. 1,1 K $
The Bank of Israel’s October 21 decision to hold its policy rate at 3.25 percent after three consecutive cuts has anchored trader expectations for the November 23 meeting. Inflation at 1.6 percent in September remains inside the 1-3 percent target range, while the shekel has depreciated and geopolitical uncertainty persists alongside fiscal pressures and a still-tight labor market. Official statements and the central bank’s updated forecasts emphasize caution, with growth projections revised higher largely due to production abroad rather than domestic activity. This combination of subdued price pressures offset by external risks has produced the strong market consensus for no change. A sharper-than-expected inflation decline or material shekel appreciation could still prompt reconsideration, though recent precedent and forward guidance limit the scope for such a shift before the decision.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 23, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.