- Eleições na Rússia: Yabloko Ultrapassa o Limite da Duma?1¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution. The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes. If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko’s federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina lawsuit citing copyright violations, extremist slogans, and alleged foreign funding; the appeals chamber upheld the ruling on August 17, leaving the decision final days before the vote. Prior independent and state polls had shown the party at 4–6 percent nationally—near or above the 5 percent threshold—with stronger urban support, prompting the exclusion just as momentum built around its anti-war platform. Without a registered federal list, Yabloko cannot contest the proportional-representation component that determines threshold clearance, driving trader consensus toward “No.” Limited single-member district candidacies remain possible but offer negligible path to the 5 percent national bar. Further supervisory or constitutional appeals are pending yet face structural barriers given the election timeline and institutional patterns.