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General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abiy Ahmed's commanding lead reflects his Prosperity Party's landslide June 2026 parliamentary election victory, which delivered a supermajority in the House of Peoples' Representatives and positions the legislature to reappoint him when it convenes later this year. Ethiopia's parliamentary system gives the ruling party decisive control over selecting the prime minister, reinforced by a fragmented opposition and limited voting in conflict-affected regions. Persistent insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, plus Tigray tensions, continue to shape the security environment but have not altered the party's institutional dominance. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes include major escalations in internal conflicts, unexpected leadership changes within the ruling coalition, or unforeseen health or political crises, though none have emerged to challenge the current trajectory.