- Nova pandemia em 2026?2¢2%
Strong surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows respiratory illness activity, including COVID-19, remaining low nationally with declining cases and no novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission as of early November 2026. Current variants such as XFG and BA.3.2 are classified as low-risk variants under monitoring, with vaccines retaining effectiveness against severe outcomes and outbreaks like Ebola in the DRC staying regionally contained rather than escalating to epidemic thresholds. This evidence underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability of no new pandemic, reflecting trader consensus on endemic patterns and historical rarity of rapid global spread. Realistic shifts could still arise from an immune-evasive strain emerging with high transmissibility or unexpected escalation of localized threats beyond containment before year-end.
Regras
Este mercado será resolvido como "Sim" se a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) declarar qualquer doença uma pandemia entre 1 de janeiro de 2026 e 31 de dezembro de 2026 23:59 ET. Caso contrário, este mercado será resolvido como "Não". A fonte de resolução serão os anúncios oficiais da Organização Mundial da Saúde.
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