- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 3?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 3?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 3?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 3?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on September 3?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather models, including GFS runs, indicate a high near 30–31°C for Tokyo on September 3 amid partly to mostly cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and southerly flow that supports modest daytime warming without strong insolation. High humidity near 70–85% and precipitation chances of 40–80% introduce uncertainty in peak readings, as cloud cover and rain can suppress temperatures below clear-sky potential while steering patterns keep the region under warm, moist air. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 30°C (34.5%) and 31°C (28.5%), reflecting trader assessment of model consensus versus historical early-September averages around 29–30°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency observations tomorrow will resolve the market, with any late forecast shifts from updated runs likely to influence positioning.