- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 26°C ou menos no dia 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 27°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 28°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 29°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura mais alta em Manila será de 30°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 31°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura mais alta em Manila será de 32°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 33°C em 14 de outubro?>99¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 34°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 35°C em 14 de outubro?<1¢
- A temperatura máxima em Manila será de 36°C ou mais em 14 de outubro?<1¢
Recent observational data and numerical weather prediction models from agencies like PAGASA and international sources indicate Manila's maximum temperature on October 14 will reach 33°C, aligning with the market's near-certain implied probability. This outcome reflects typical late-October conditions in the region's monsoon transition period, where daytime highs often peak near 31–33°C amid moderate humidity and variable cloud cover. Afternoon convection or scattered showers may cap further warming, while clear spells support the observed maximum. Deviations remain possible only through unforecasted heavy rainfall or station-specific microclimate effects that slightly lower the official reading below the threshold.
Regras
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.