- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?98¢
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?1¢
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Recent hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and firming inflation data have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward a 25 basis point rate increase at the September 17-18 policy meeting, lifting the policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. Ueda’s September 2 comments highlighted the need to debate upside price risks and the baseline economic scenario, while Tokyo core CPI rose to 1.8% year-over-year in August and the core-core measure reached 2.0%, reflecting broadening pressures from food, services, and yen weakness near 159-160 per dollar despite prior interventions. These factors align with the BOJ’s normalization path after five prior hikes, with market-implied odds reflecting skin-in-the-game positioning ahead of the decision. A hold or larger move remains possible only if incoming national CPI data or external shocks materially alter the risk assessment before mid-September.