- Will the median home value in NYC be between $555,000 and $582,000 on September 30?<1¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?24¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30?43¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?4¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30?<1¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30?27¢
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $582,000 and $609,000 on September 30?1¢
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July 2026 show New York City median sale prices and typical home values holding in the $830K–$907K range, with year-over-year gains of 1–5% amid chronically low inventory and mortgage rates near 6%. This stability, supported by limited new supply and resilient buyer demand in core boroughs, underpins the 44.8% market-implied probability on the $689K+ outcome. Modest seasonal sales volume and flat-to-rising price-per-square-foot metrics reinforce trader consensus for continued resilience into late September, though any acceleration in listings or further rate volatility could shift sentiment toward the $663K–$689K bin.