- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?59¢
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?48¢
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?36¢
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?79¢
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?1¢
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?13¢
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?10¢
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?25¢
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?2¢
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?75¢
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?36¢
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?65¢
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 draws focus amid Treasury yields near multi-year highs, with the 10-year at approximately 4.7% and the 30-year near 5.2%, reflecting trader concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% target for more than five years. Recent Treasury bond purchases and Warsh’s pared-back communications style—eschewing detailed forward guidance in favor of data dependence—have amplified uncertainty around the Fed’s reaction function and independence. Markets price modest rate-hike probabilities by year-end while awaiting Wednesday’s PCE release for fresh inflation signals. The speech, under the theme of financial innovation and payments policy, offers a platform for Warsh to address task-force findings on inflation dynamics and balance-sheet policy, with any hawkish emphasis on price stability likely reinforcing higher-for-longer expectations.