- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?3¢
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
US sanctions policy toward Iranian oil exports remains tightly enforced following the July 2026 revocation of General License X, which had briefly authorized sales through August 21 amid June negotiations. Recent OFAC alerts on August 24 highlight risks tied to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and smuggling networks, reinforcing maximum-pressure measures under the Trump administration. These developments sustain elevated global crude prices by limiting Iranian supply—potentially 1–2 million barrels per day—while supporting tanker rates and insurance premiums. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability of near-term reissuance absent de-escalation or new MoU milestones, with upcoming catalysts including any Treasury announcements or diplomatic talks that could alter secondary sanctions exposure.