- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 6?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 6?40¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 6?53¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market-implied odds favor a minimum temperature of 26–27°C on September 6 in Hong Kong, driven by official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble model consensus showing overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90 percent, and light easterly winds are limiting radiational cooling, while sea-surface temperatures remain elevated after an unusually warm August. These conditions align with early-September climatology, where urban minima typically hover between 25–28°C absent a strong monsoon surge or clear-sky radiative event. Recent model runs show tight clustering around 26–27°C, with only modest spread from variable shower activity, supporting the heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. Traders appear to discount lower readings below 25°C given the absence of northeasterly monsoon strengthening until later in the week and the lack of any cold-air advection. The next HKO forecast update and real-time observations will provide the final inputs before resolution.