- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?100¢100%
- Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?0¢0%
- Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?0¢0%
- Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?0¢0%
- Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?0¢0%
- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?0¢0%
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?0¢0%
United Russia’s strong performance in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections underpins trader consensus around 340–354 seats. The party captured roughly 58 percent of the party-list vote and prevailed in the large majority of single-mandate districts, producing a projected constitutional majority near its prior record of 343 seats. Official preliminary counts place the total at 349–355, with final certification by the Central Election Commission still pending. Minor revisions from remaining protocols or single-district recounts could shift the precise figure within or just outside the 340–354 range, though systemic factors such as the exclusion of non-systemic opposition and wartime voting arrangements have limited scope for larger swings.
Zasady
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.