- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 8?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 8?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on September 8?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on September 8?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from GFS and regional sources indicate a high near 27°C in Warsaw on September 8 under moderate southerly flow, surface pressures around 1015 hPa, and partly cloudy skies with limited moisture. This positions 27°C and 28°C as leading outcomes, as afternoon temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-20s Celsius before any evening cooling. Recent model runs show consistency in the 26–28°C range with low precipitation risk, though minor variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact maximum. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49% and 36.5% implied probabilities, incorporates typical short-range forecast uncertainty and historical September variability for the region. Updated observations and final model guidance tomorrow morning will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.