- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 6°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 7°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 8°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 9°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 10°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 11°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on September 7?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on September 7?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on September 7?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on September 7?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or higher on September 7?5¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
A polar air mass following a recent cold front has suppressed temperatures across São Paulo, driving market-implied odds toward 13–14°C highs for September 7. Official forecasts from sources such as Climatempo and IPMet indicate daytime maxima of 12–15°C under mostly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and possible drizzle, well below the early-September climatological average near 24°C. Model consensus shows limited warming potential due to persistent high pressure and marine influence, though partial afternoon clearing could push readings to 15°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical cold-surge analogs, with resolution hinging on the official station reading at Congonhas or a comparable INMET site.