- Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?27¢
- Will Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen win the Falealili 1 by-election?4¢
- Will Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea win the Falealili 1 by-election?4¢
- Will Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai win the Falealili 1 by-election?1¢
- Will Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu win the Falealili 1 by-election?11¢
- Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?39¢
- Will Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko win the Falealili 1 by-election?20¢
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
The Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa, scheduled for 18 September 2026, follows the Court of Appeal's June ruling upholding the voiding of former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo's seat over election bribery findings. A crowded field features FAST nominees including Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale and Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu alongside HRPP candidates Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko, plus several independents. Trader consensus shows leading probabilities clustered near 30-40 percent with no single contender dominating, reflecting limited consolidation after recent nominations closed and the absence of major withdrawals. Fragmented support across party and independent lines, combined with the short campaign window before pre-polling on 16 September, sustains the tight positioning; shifts could emerge from final turnout patterns or last-minute alignments among the roughly dozen registered options.