- Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the June meeting?5¢5 %
- Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?19¢19 %
- Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?38¢38 %
- Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?21¢21 %
- Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the June meeting?13¢13 %
- 4,5 %50+ bps decreaseVolum 853,8 $
- 9 %19 %25 bps decreaseVolum 671,3 $
- 5 %37,5 %No ChangeVolum 4,9k $
- 10 %20,5 %25 bps increaseVolum 10,3k $
- 4 %13,2 %50+ bps increaseVolum 439,1 $
Recent energy price shocks have elevated Swiss inflation to 0.6% by May 2026, prompting trader focus on whether the SNB will adjust its policy rate from the current 0% at the June assessment, with no change commanding the highest market-implied odds at 41.5%. The SNB's conditional inflation forecast remains anchored within its 0-2% price stability range through 2028 assuming an unchanged rate, reflecting only modest medium-term pressure despite higher imported goods costs. A stronger Swiss franc and resilient domestic growth further support the consensus for stability, though elevated global uncertainty leaves room for 25 basis point moves priced at 22.5% and 19.0%. The December assessment and upcoming CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the June 2027 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its June 2027 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for June 24, 2027, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its June 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.