- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?31¢31 %
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?94¢94 %
- Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?23¢23 %
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?34¢34 %
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?76¢76 %
- Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?52¢52 %
- 26 %30,5 %November 15, 2026Volum 9,5k $
- 1 %93,6 %November 30, 2026Volum 14,9k $
- 3 %22,5 %Super Heavy booster explodes?Volum 5,6k $
- 1 %34 %Successful splash down?Volum 1,5k $
- 2 %75,5 %Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?Volum 7,5k $
- 2 %52 %Chopsticks catch Starship?Volum 11,4k $
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.
SpaceX is targeting November 13 for Starship Flight 15, the first attempt to catch the upper stage Ship with the launch tower's mechanical arms while also recovering the Super Heavy booster at the same site. Booster 22 and Ship 42, both Block 3 vehicles, completed full-duration static fires in late October, confirming engine performance ahead of the mission. Elon Musk has described a successful ship catch as more likely than not, building on Flight 14's orbital demonstration and Starlink deployment. The FAA license remains the key near-term gate, with hardware otherwise prepared for a rapid reusability milestone that would mark the first full recovery of an orbital-class launch vehicle.
Regler
If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.