SpaceX · VitenskapSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?5¢5 %
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?94¢94 %
• Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?24¢24 %
• Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?34¢34 %
• Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?75¢75 %
• Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?52¢52 %

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.

SpaceX has completed full-duration static fires for Super Heavy Booster 22 and Ship 42 in late October, clearing key ground-test milestones ahead of Starship Flight 15. Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell confirmed in October earnings remarks that the mission will attempt the first simultaneous tower catch of both the booster and upper stage using Mechazilla arms at Starbase, following Flight 14’s orbital success. The FAA license remains pending while air-traffic planning slides list a no-earlier-than date of November 12. Traders are pricing a launch by November 30 at high implied probability due to rapid vehicle turnaround and regulatory momentum, though any delay in licensing or last-minute technical issues could shift the timeline. Flight 16 preparations and Starlink payload integration add competitive pressure for operational cadence.