- Will US births in 2026 be less than 3.50 million?<1¢<1 %
- Will US births in 2026 be between 3.50 million and 3.53 million?1¢1 %
- Will US births in 2026 be between 3.53 million and 3.56 million?38¢38 %
- Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?49¢49 %
- Will US births in 2026 be between 3.59 million and 3.62 million?7¢7 %
- Will US births in 2026 be between 3.62 million and 3.65 million?2¢2 %
- Will US births in 2026 be at least 3.65 million?8¢8 %
- 0,2 %<3.50MVolum 549 $
- 2 %1,1 %3.50M–3.53MVolum 1,6k $
- 1 %37,5 %3.53M–3.56MVolum 4,3k $
- 9 %48,5 %3.56M–3.59MVolum 10,4k $
- 4 %7 %3.59M–3.62MVolum 2,7k $
- 3 %2,3 %3.62M–3.65MVolum 863,6 $
- 7,5 %3.65M+Volum 851,4 $
Recent CDC final data for 2025 births, released in late October, anchors trader sentiment around 3.56M–3.59M for 2026 by confirming a continued slide to a record-low general fertility rate of 53.2. Younger women’s birth rates hit new lows across teens through the late 20s, while modest gains among women in their 30s and early 40s reflect the broader cultural shift toward delayed parenthood amid high child-rearing costs and career priorities. Pronatalist policy signals, including proposed baby bonuses, have yet to reverse the long-term narrative of sub-replacement fertility that began accelerating after 2007. With economic uncertainty and evolving family-formation trends still dominant, the market sees limited upside for a rebound in total births this year.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the total number of births in the United States in 2026, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: The relevant data will be the total number of births in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.