- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?14¢14 %
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?28¢28 %
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate at the March meeting?45¢45 %
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?3¢3 %
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?4¢4 %
- 4 %14 %50+ bps decreaseVolum 1,7k $
- 2 %27,5 %25 bps decreaseVolum 627,4 $
- 6 %44,5 %No ChangeVolum 8,5k $
- 3,4 %25 bps increaseVolum 542,3 $
- 3,8 %50+ bps increaseVolum 567,5 $
The Bank of Russia’s October 23 decision to hold the key rate at 14% for a second straight meeting, alongside an upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1–7.6% and a 2027 average rate path of 12.5–13.5%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the March 2027 meeting. Persistent underlying price pressures running at a 5–6% annualized pace, elevated inflation expectations, and one-off factors such as fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions and October utility tariff increases have reinforced the case for maintaining restrictive conditions to return inflation to the 4% target. Recent analyst commentary, including from Sber, highlights the possibility of holding near current levels into 2027 if the central bank prioritizes the inflation goal, limiting room for even modest easing early next year.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 19, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.