- Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?40¢40 %
- Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?34¢34 %
- Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?7¢7 %
- Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?5¢5 %
- Will Z.ai be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?4¢4 %
- Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?3¢3 %
- Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?3¢3 %
- Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?2¢2 %
- Will SpaceXAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?1¢1 %
- Will Tencent be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?1¢1 %
- Will Nvidia be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?<1¢<1 %
28 %40,5 %AnthropicVolum 9k $
31 %34 %MetaVolum 11,8k $
7 %7 %OpenAIVolum 7,5k $
2 %5 %GoogleVolum 8,7k $
3,9 %Z.aiVolum 1,2k $
3,3 %AlibabaVolum 2,2k $
2,5 %MoonshotVolum 1,4k $
2 %2,1 %DeepSeekVolum 1,2k $
1,6 %ByteDanceVolum 1,2k $
1 %1,1 %SpaceXAIVolum 1,2k $
1,1 %TencentVolum 1,9k $
2 %0,6 %NvidiaVolum 1,3k $
Anthropic holds a narrow lead at 54% implied probability for the third spot on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard under the Style Control filter by November 30, reflecting tight competition with Meta at 31.5% and a broad field of labs clustered near 50%. Recent Claude model iterations and prompt refinements emphasizing concise, intent-aligned responses have strengthened its positioning on style-neutral benchmarks that strip formatting biases. Meta’s rapid Llama release cadence and open-weight ecosystem continue to pressure the middle ranks, while OpenAI and Google trail at single digits amid slower perceived gains in raw preference voting. With the resolution window only weeks away, any final model drops or leaderboard shifts could quickly alter the ranking.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".