- Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?75¢75%
Recent NOAA CPC data show the 2026–27 El Niño already producing record Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies near +3.3°C in early October, with subsurface heat content well above average and continued strengthening through year-end. Ensemble forecasts from multiple models project a peak exceeding the 2015–16 benchmark of roughly +2.8°C, supporting an 83% implied probability of surpassing prior events on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index for October–December. This rapid intensification, driven by a deeper thermocline and coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback, underpins trader consensus around an 80.5% chance of a record event. Key variables include the exact peak timing and final three-month averages, with the next CPC update and weekly observations expected to refine odds before resolution.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No". The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season. If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No". No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it. The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/