- Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
Russia's insistence that any Putin-Zelenskyy meeting occur only after technical-level agreements on post-war security arrangements, territorial issues, and long-term guarantees has kept direct leader engagement off the near-term agenda. Ongoing US-brokered trilateral talks scheduled for mid-November in Abu Dhabi focus on preparatory work rather than immediate summits, while Moscow continues to favor Moscow as a venue and rejects neutral third-country options acceptable to Kyiv. Persistent gaps over Donbas control, Ukrainian neutrality, and NATO membership, alongside active frontline operations, reinforce trader expectations that no in-person meeting will occur before the December 31, 2026 resolution date. A rapid breakthrough in the November negotiations or unforeseen diplomatic pressure could still shift the outlook.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.