- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?11¢11%
Ongoing regional tensions and the persistent linkage of normalization to Palestinian statehood have kept major candidates like Saudi Arabia from advancing toward the Abraham Accords. Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned any deal on an irreversible pathway to a two-state solution, a stance reinforced in late 2025 statements and unchanged amid the 2026 Iran conflict and related security concerns. Analyses from October 2026 rank Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria as marginally closer prospects, yet none show active bilateral negotiations or timelines that could produce a signing before year-end. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent expansion, with stalled Sudanese implementation and limited diplomatic movement elsewhere underscoring the narrow window and structural barriers that shape current trader consensus.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.