- Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in November 2026?11¢11%
- Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in November 2026?35¢35%
- Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in November 2026?20¢20%
- Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in November 2026?22¢22%
- 0,6%<1$ 2,8K vol.
- 2%10,7%1$ 2,6K vol.
- 14%35%2$ 6,2K vol.
- 8%19,5%3$ 1,9K vol.
- 21%21,5%4+$ 5,4K vol.
North Korea’s accelerated weapons testing in late 2026, including multiple launch events in early November involving cruise missiles with dispersal warheads, surface-to-air systems, and short-range projectiles from sites like Sondok, has shaped trader views on total November activity. Ongoing border tensions with South Korea, combined with Pyongyang’s focus on validating new guidance, cluster munitions, and naval systems, sustain a high testing tempo despite the typical seasonal decline in winter months. The near-even split between two and three tests, with four-plus close behind, reflects uncertainty over whether the current burst will continue or taper before month-end, as historical patterns show fewer provocations in November while recent data indicate more frequent events than prior years. Scheduled military drills or diplomatic signals could influence remaining days.
Regels
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during November 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.