Pandemics·Disease·+1New pandemic before 2028?

• New pandemic before 2028?10¢10%

Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% market-implied odds for “No” on a new pandemic before 2028 stems primarily from sustained global surveillance showing no novel pathogen with sustained human-to-human transmission capable of rapid international spread. Official WHO assessments confirm only moderate risk from ongoing SARS-CoV-2 circulation and localized Ebola Bundibugyo and mpox outbreaks, while H5N1 avian influenza cases remain limited without evidence of efficient person-to-person spread. Post-COVID enhancements in genomic sequencing, wastewater monitoring, and the 2025 Pandemic Agreement plus International Health Regulations amendments have strengthened early detection, making swift escalation less probable within the short 14-month window. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected zoonotic spillover or viral mutation enabling efficient transmission, though current data indicate these remain low-probability events pending further surveillance updates.