- Will Congress override 0 Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?52¢52%
- Will Congress override 1 Trump veto by December 31, 2027?26¢26%
- Will Congress override 2 Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?5¢5%
- Will Congress override 3+ Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?19¢19%
- 14%52%0$ 2,8K vol.
- 11%25,5%1$ 181,8 vol.
- 35%5%2$ 112,4 vol.
- 27%19%3+$ 289,3 vol.
Democratic control of Congress after the 2026 midterms has established divided government for the final two years of the term, prompting expectations of increased veto activity. However, the new majorities fall well short of the two-thirds thresholds required in both chambers for overrides, a bar that has historically proven difficult to clear even under unified opposition. Past patterns show only one successful override across Trump’s first-term vetoes, with the two second-term vetoes sustained in early 2026 House votes despite some Republican defections. Trader consensus reflected in the leading outcomes assigns the highest implied probability to zero or one override through the end of 2027, underscoring the structural barriers and limited cross-aisle support anticipated on most measures.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the exact number of Donald Trump's vetoes that Congress overrides between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A veto will be considered overridden once both the House of Representatives and the Senate pass the vetoed bill or joint resolution by the two-thirds vote required under Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution. An override will be considered to have occurred on the date the second chamber completes its vote, regardless of when the veto was issued. An override vote by only one chamber will not qualify. Each overridden bill or joint resolution counts as one override. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official congressional voting records, including Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.