- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?81¢81%
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?40¢40%
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?7¢7%
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?2¢2%
- 48%81%60%+$ 74,1K vol.
- 21%39,5%65%+$ 46,7K vol.
- 1%6,5%70%+$ 9,9K vol.
- 1%2%75%+$ 2,8K vol.
Anthropic’s rapid 2026 releases of the Claude 5 family—especially Fable 5.2 and Opus 5.5—drive current trader sentiment, with these models posting leading or near-leading HLE scores of 61–74% across variants including AA-HLE, HLE-Diamond, and tool-augmented runs as of early November. Gains stem from scaled reasoning effort, agentic workflows, and targeted training on expert-level questions spanning math, sciences, and multimodal tasks. Claude variants frequently outpace GPT-6 and Gemini counterparts on independent leaderboards, though exact figures shift by protocol (no-tools vs. with-tools, full set vs. Diamond subset). With resolution set for December 31, 2026, further Claude updates or benchmark refinements remain key swing factors that could push the highest score across higher thresholds.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".