- China ballistic missile launch by December 31?100¢100%
China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has conducted multiple unannounced ballistic missile drills in recent weeks, including DF-26 launches and no-notice exercises in mountainous terrain, while integrating the new DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missile into routine training shortly after its 2025 parade debut. These activities coincide with large-scale naval deployments and area-denial drills in the western Pacific around Taiwan, alongside submarine-launched missile tests and heightened cross-strait signaling ahead of the APEC summit. State media have emphasized rapid-response capabilities and national reunification themes, consistent with patterns of frequent live-fire and training launches. Traders therefore assign an 89.5% implied probability to at least one additional ballistic missile launch occurring before year-end, reflecting the ongoing tempo of verified exercises rather than any single announced event.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.