러시아가... 에 의해 나토 국가를 침공할 것인가?

정치우크라이나NATO폴란드지정학세계

• 러시아가 2026년 12월 31일까지 나토 국가를 침공할까요?6¢
• 러시아가 2026년 9월 30일까지 NATO 회원국을 침공할까요?<1¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.