- 2023년 9월 4일 시카고, 일리노이에서 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 휴스턴, 텍사스는 9월 4일 토네이도 위험에 직면할까요?<1¢
- 2023년 9월 4일에 샌안토니오, 텍사스가 토네이도 위험에 직면할까요?<1¢
- 2023년 9월 4일에 댈러스(TX)는 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 오스틴, 텍사스는 9월 4일에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 포트워스, 텍사스는 9월 4일에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 콜럼버스(오하이오)은 9월 4일에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?>99¢
- 샬럿, 노스캐롤라이나가 9월 4일에 토네이도 위험에 직면할까요?<1¢
- 2024년 9월 4일에 인디애나폴리스(IN)에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 2024년 9월 4일에 덴버, 콜로라도에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 9월 4일 내슈빌, 테네시 주에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
- 오클라호마시티, OK는 9월 4일에 토네이도 위험이 있을까요?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on September 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC outlook is not published or is unavailable, the market remains open until data is available. The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 outlook for September 4, 2026, placed a slight severe risk across the southern Great Lakes into the mid/upper Ohio Valley, with a 2% tornado probability contour centered on central Ohio cities including Columbus, Fort Wayne, Mansfield, and Newark. A frontal boundary and moderate instability supported organized storms, though the primary hazards emphasized damaging winds rather than widespread tornadic activity. An EF2 tornado with 115 mph winds touched down in Detroit around 4:14 p.m. EDT, carving a 3.5-mile path and marking the city’s first confirmed tornado since 1997, while an EF0 was confirmed in nearby Lincoln Park. NWS damage surveys released September 5 provide the authoritative confirmation traders will reference for market resolution.