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This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on September 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC outlook is not published or is unavailable, the market remains open until data is available. The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks issued on September 2, 2026, placed a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms with tornado potential across portions of the eastern Great Lakes, western New York, central Pennsylvania, and the Mid-Atlantic, driven by moderate northwest flow aloft, 2000–3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and sufficient low-level shear for supercell development along a surface boundary. Official probabilistic tornado graphics highlighted 2–5% risk areas encompassing cities such as Buffalo, Rochester, Detroit, Cleveland, and parts of the I-95 corridor, with Environment Canada issuing tornado watches for southern Ontario including Toronto amid an advancing cold front. Model consensus emphasized damaging winds as the primary threat but noted conditions favoring isolated tornadoes, particularly in the evening as storms evolved. Updated SPC guidance and local watches through the afternoon and overnight provided key real-time inputs for trader assessments of specific city exposure.