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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
US-Iran tensions in the ongoing 2026 conflict center trader attention on Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of crude shipments. President Trump has repeatedly threatened seizure or occupation to pressure Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz blockade and force concessions, following repeated US airstrikes on military targets including air defenses, radar, and missile storage while sparing oil infrastructure. Iran has reinforced the island with additional personnel, air defenses, and mines in anticipation of a possible ground operation. Partial oil loading resumed at the western terminal in mid-August after a 25-day halt, underscoring resilience amid disruptions, yet the island remains firmly under Iranian control with no reported territorial change. Further strikes, naval movements, or diplomatic talks could influence assessments of escalation risks versus sustained Iranian authority.