- 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 9월에 4.51% 이하로 하락할까요?16¢
- 9월에 10년 만기 미국 재무부 채권 수익률이 4.56% 이하로 하락할까요?20¢
- 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 9월에 4.67% 아래로 떨어질까요?41¢
- 9월에 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 4.70% 아래로 하락할까요?53¢
- 9월에 10년 만기 미국 국채 수익률이 4.73% 아래로 떨어질까요?61¢
- 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 9월에 4.61% 아래로 하락할까요?25¢
- 9월에 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 4.64% 아래로 내려갈까요?39¢
- 9월에 10년물 국채 수익률이 4.76% 아래로 떨어질까요?75¢
- 9월에 10년 만기 미국 국채 수익률이 4.45% 아래로 떨어질까요?12¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Elevated fiscal supply and persistent inflation pressures are anchoring the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.78% in early September 2026, limiting the scope for significant declines this month. Heavy Treasury issuance, a federal deficit near 5.8% of GDP, and corporate borrowing compete for investor demand, while July CPI at 3.4% and core readings above the Fed’s 2% target sustain a higher term premium. The Fed’s 3.75% funds rate and hawkish commentary, including dissenters favoring hikes, reinforce market-implied expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path. Recent Treasury buyback expansions provide modest support but appear insufficient to offset these dynamics. Key upcoming releases—August employment data, September CPI, and the next FOMC meeting—will test whether weaker growth or clearer disinflation can compress yields below recent 4.64–4.79% trading ranges. Traders view current levels as reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on structural headwinds rather than temporary volatility.