- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 3?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 3?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 3?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models for September 3, 2026, in Munich indicate a daytime maximum of 24–26°C under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with light to moderate westerly winds and negligible precipitation risk. This range aligns directly with current market-implied probabilities, where 25°C leads at 48% followed by 26°C at 33.5% and 24°C at 15.5%. The consensus stems from stable numerical weather prediction outputs showing above-average warmth relative to the September 3 climatological high of ~21.8°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting mild Atlantic air without significant subsidence or clear-sky radiative heating that could push values higher. Recent model runs have shown little day-to-day shift, supporting trader confidence in this narrow band ahead of the final observation from official stations. Uncertainties remain small but center on exact cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which could nudge the peak by 1°C in either direction.